Oracle's state meet preview - girls

Oracle has written a state meet preview for the girls that looks good for the DCL:

In order to be a contender for the team title this year teams have to have a home run hitter (or two) and depth. I've listed the teams I think have a legit chance to score over 30 points. Assumes (and hopes) there are no major injuries or illnesses.

1) Newton South.
The scariest result from the Elite meet for other teams had to be:

2 632 Mbianda, Nalis 12 Newton South 39-06.50 12.05m

Their distance corps is strong enough to win the title on its own, and if Mbianda ends up high on the SP podium NS is probably at 40 points or over and out of reach of the rest of the teams. Dahlberg and Karys look like a good bet for 18 points in the mile and two mile. Bromfield's Jones is as sure a bet in the two mile as there is in this meet, but Karys looks just as solid for second. If Jones decides to move down to the mile to challenge Dahlberg again and succeeds, NS still ends up with the same amount of points. Framingham's Murphy might also take a bite out of the mile points, but until someone beats her in the mile, Dahlberg is the queen.

The NS 4x8 should also score 8-10 points although it won't be easy with LS, Weymouth, NN, and Bromfield looking to challenge. Dahlberg, O'Keefe, and Ryan-Davis are all sub 2:20 runners.

Those events gives them 26-28 points. O'Keefe will also score points in either the mile or 1000, and may end up very high in the standings for either. Other potential point scorers are Ryan-Davis in the 600/1000/mile, Banks in the 55, Fineman in the mile/2 mile, and the 4x2. Now add a big finish for Mbiandi and its a 40+ point effort.

2) Mansfield.
The next biggest lock on the girls side after Jones in the 2 mile is defending champ Ferreira in the hurdles. The hurdles can be dangerous - if Lolo Jones can get tripped up anyone can - but still plan on 10 points here. Mansfield also looks like one of the favorites in the 4x4, which could give them 20 points.

And how about this for an athlete? McCabe has high jumped 5-4 and thrown the shot over 39 feet, but she can only compete in one field event. The HJ is the most volatile event in the meet where a brush of the bar can cost several positions on jumps, and there are a lot of girls who have jumped 5-4 to 5-5, so the shot looks like where the points are more sure. In order to win it they will need sophomore Broyles to score well in the 300. Good scores by these two puts Mansfield in the mid-30's. Mansfield also has a sub 1:40 600 runner in Jennsen and she could pull a Petteruto. Lastly, Ferreira also can score points in the LJ.

3) Lincoln-Sudbury
The hardest team to figure out. They could win it, or they could finish several spots down. They are difficult to figure because their best chances appear to be in the two most hotly contested events: 1000 and HJ. LS has owned the 1000 the last two years, with three different runners winning the last two all-state and elite races, and riding a 1-2 finish in the event to the state title two years ago. Hylton is having an especially good year, have gone 1:38 in the 600 in flats, winning the Elite 1000 in 2:57, and with 5:10 and 11:19 times. The 1000 is very deep, fast, and wide open so predicting a place in this event is hard and many teams have a legit runner who can win it. Keklak has also run a 1:38 and an early season 3:00. If these two can score 16 points between them somewhere, and LS wins a tightly contested 4x8 they will have 26 points.

LS also has Griffin who has placed 2nd in the 1000 and 5th in the 600 in the last two all-state meets. She skipped XC and is just rounding into shape now. A good performance in the 600 will put them at 30+ points. Flemming has jumped 5-5 a few times and is consistently at the top of the standings. A top place in the HJ could put them into the upper 30's. Lastly, Gossels (5:15, 11:18) has also had a good season, and Claire Arthur has been in the seeded all-state finals for the 1000 and 800 last year.

4) Newton North
To win it, they need Ranti to win the hotly contested 1000, and she has the best PR in the group (2:54). A win here not only gives them big points but takes away points from several of their rivals (NS, LS, Andover). In addition, NN has a good chance to win the 4x8. Margo Gillis will also score points, but the question is where. I'd expect her to show up in the 2 mile or maybe the mile and has the ability to go as high as a third place somewhere. Kaufman could score in two events (LJ and 55H). It seems everyone has a 5-4 jumper, and NN is no exception. If all goes right, NN could land in the high 30's and win it.

5) Haverhill
One more Stabile sister and they would be the favorites. Stabile the elder is the top 300 runner and is also yet another 5-4 jumper. Stabile the younger is a strong contender in the 600, and the two of them combine to form half of a strong 4x4 contingent. Haverhill also has a good distance group and could score in the 4x8. If things go well they land in the mid-30's.

6) Andover
The defending champs have strong entries in the two key events of the meet: the 1000 and the HJ. Last year Shannon's photo finish for third in the 1000 was one of the reasons Andover won it, and they will need at least a third from her this year to contend. Andover also has a 5-4 jumper and they need this event too. Knapp has an outside chance at points in the 300, but the real strength of the Andover team is in the relays and they will be contenders in both the 4x2 and 4x4. It is a bit of a stretch for them to hit 30, but hey, they're the defending champs.